Alabama 2012 Economic Forecast Released at Annual Conference

Alabama’s economy should continue to slowly recover in 2012 according to the forecast from the Center for Business and Economic Research (CBER) presented at the 24th annual Economic Outlook Conference held January 12 in Montgomery.   Ahmad Ijaz, the Center’s Director of Economic Forecasting, expects job growth of around 1.1 percent, with about 20,600 jobs added by Alabama businesses during 2012.  That’s much better than the 0.2 percent job gain between November 2010 and November 2012, although the state needs to see a net increase of almost 135,000 jobs to bring employment back to prerecession levels.

The rebound in Alabama GDP should proceed at a stronger pace, with a 2.4 percent rise in output forecasted.  That’s above the 2.2 percent increase in U.S. GDP expected by Dr. David Altig, Senior Vice President and Director of Research at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.  Exports will be a positive for growth in both the state and national economies, while weakness in government spending and housing markets will continue to constrain the recoveries.  Alabama’s total tax receipts, which rose 5.0 percent in FY 2011, could see almost as strong a gain during FY 2012.

Businesses overall are slightly optimistic in first quarter 2012, registering 50.8 on the Center’s Alabama Business Confidence Index™ (ABCI).   Continued diversification and, in particular, growing tourism, exports, and manufacturing are among strengths that will propel the Alabama economy during 2012.

Employment in all of the state’s metro areas remained below prerecession annual peaks through 2011, with Huntsville, Florence-Muscle Shoals, and Auburn-Opelika having the smallest percentage deficits.  Still, employment stabilized and unemployment fell in every metro area during the past year.  Carolyn Trent, Socioeconomic Analyst at CBER, expects the groundwork laid in 2011 to lead to at least modest growth in every metro during 2012 as areas build on economic strengths and development initiatives to create jobs, recover from the 2011 tornadoes, and improve the quality of life for their residents.

Dr. Samuel Addy, Associate Dean for Research and Outreach in UA’s Culverhouse College of Commerce, addressed the 160 conference attendees over lunch, speaking on Critical Issues for U.S. Economic Recovery and Growth from a broad economic perspective of planning and optimal response to the current challenges.

View Dr. David Altig’s The Economy:  A View from the Fed presentation here.

View Ahmad Ijaz’s 2012 Economic Outlook:  Alabama  presentation here.

View Carolyn Trent’s 2012 Economic Outlook:  Alabama Metro Areas presentation here.

See what the press reported from the conference at the links below:       

The Montgomery Advertiser
The Gadsden Times
The Tuscaloosa News

Conference sponsors this year include the Alabama Council on Economic Education, Alabama Department of Economic and Community Affairs, Alabama-Mississippi Intermodal Complex, Alabama Power, Alabama SBDC Network, BBVA Compass, BlueCross BlueShield of Alabama, Boeing Company, Hyundai Motor Manufacturing Alabama, Kuykendall & Associates, Mercedes-Benz U.S. International, Riley & Jackson, ServisFirst Bank, Sterne Agee, and Vulcan Materials Company.

Executive Summary––First Quarter 2012 Alabama Business Confidence Index™

ABCI: Business sentiment measured by UA's Alabama Business Confidence Index™ (ABCI) moved back into positive territory at 50.8 for the first quarter of 2012, up 5.3 points from last quarter's 45.5. Panelists are generally feeling mildly optimistic about their prospects this quarter, with all four industry indicators at or above 50. While economic conditions in the state should be a positive, the broader national economy is still expected to have a negative impact. With optimism early in 2011 giving way to pessimism as the pace of recovery slowed, Alabama business executives are decidedly more cautious than a year ago when the ABCI registered 55.1.

FINDINGS: Detailed results looking ahead to Q1 2012 include:

National Economic Outlook: Alabama business executives are not ready to conclude that the U.S. economy... more

The University of Alabama 2009-2010 Economic Impacts

For 2009-2010, The University of Alabama (UA) economic impacts on the State of Alabama were $2.033 billion and 10,346 jobs. About $81.4 million in state and local tax revenues were generated; nearly $51 million for the state ($24.4 million sales and $26.6 million income) and about $30.5 million local sales tax.

For every $1 of state appropriation UA created a $14.68 statewide impact with leveraging. Alabama will realize a 13.4 percent annual rate of return on the $138.5 million state appropriation to UA over the working life of the 2009-2010 graduating class from $1.034 billion in additional income and sales taxes ($725.1 million state and $308.5 million local).

Alabama home football games had a total impact of $162.7 million on the state for the seven home games in the year, an average of $23.2 million per game... more

Report takes broad look at Alabama economy and related topics

A study completed by CBER in 2011 for the Alabama Association of Regional Councils (AARC) assesses the status of the state’s economy, people, resources, and environment in global, national, and regional contexts.  The 53-page report, Alabama in the Global Economy, considers the question of “Where do we go from here?” and offers policy recommendations for sustainable development.  It is part of the AARC’s recent update of Alabama’s Comprehensive Economic Development Strategy (CEDS).  You can visit the Alabama CEDS website at http://ceds.alabama.gov/ for reports, data, and maps or access the Alabama in the Global Economy report directly here.

Preliminary macroeconomic impact estimates of the April 27, 2011 tornadoes that hit Alabama are reductions of (i) 0.2-0.5 percent in employment or 5,600-13,200 jobs, (ii) 0.2-0.5 percent in state tax collections or $19.1-44.5 million, (iii) 0.5-0.7 percent in Alabama Gross Domestic Product (GDP) or $835 million
to $1.3 billion, and (iv) $4.4-10.2 million in local sales tax collections.  These loss effects are expected to be experienced in 2011 only.   more

The Center for Business and Economic Research has released preliminary macroeconomic impact estimates of the BP Deepwater Horizon oil spill on Alabama for 2010. more

View results.

Alabama Economic Outlook


Alabama Business


Demographic Profiles - CD